Angola: Food Security Early Warning System - Agromet Update Issue 1, 2014/2015 Agricultural Season

Overview of the SARCOF Forecast

Four seasonal forecasts were issued at the SARCOF, covering the periods October to December 2014 (figure 1a), November 2014 to January 2015 (figure 1b), December 2014 to February 2015 (figure 1c), and January to March 2015 (figure 1d). According to the SARCOF, most of the SADC region is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall (light blue colours) throughout the forecast period. The exceptions are as follows:

1. South-western areas including south-western Angola, western Namibia and western South Africa were given higher chances of receiving above normal to normal rainfall in the October-December and January-March forecasts.

2. North-eastern Tanzania was determined to have higher chances of receiving above-normal to normal rainfall in the October-December period.

3. Northern DRC has enhanced chances of normal to below normal rainfall in October-December 4. Northern and central DRC, and northern Angola, have greater chances of receiving normal to below-normal rainfall in the November-to-January period and the January-to-March period.

4. Northern and central Madagascar have increased chances of receiving normal to below normal rainfall in January to March.

5. Seychelles has enhanced chances of receiving above-normal to normal rainfall throughout the October-March period

6. Mauritius was given higher chances of receiving normal to below-normal rainfall in the October-December period, and the January-March period.

The impacts of these most likely outcomes need to be considered in the context of normal rainfall amounts, rain bearing systems, soil moisture levels, water availability, grazing conditions; and current food security status in the different areas where the forecast is being applied.